Steven Wang: At present, e-commerce cargo has become the main source of international air cargo, and airlines’ expectations for the future market are constantly increasing. The annual BSA (long-term space guarantee) contract price for European routes next year is close to RMB 40 per kilogram, while the US route will rise to about RMB 45 per kilogram.
With the increase in BSA contract prices, the space left for freight forwarders to arbitrage between off-season and peak season is gradually shrinking, while e-commerce cargo has no obvious off-season and peak season throughout the year.
If air freight forwarders do not sign BSA contracts at higher prices, they will face the dilemma of lack of stable supply; and signing contracts at high prices will be subject to huge financial pressure and the risk of market fluctuations.
As the proportion of direct contracts between e-commerce platforms and airlines continues to increase, the market share of air freight forwarders continues to shrink, and the trend of industry de-intermediation is becoming increasingly obvious.
Airline companies, financial leasing companies and charter companies that sign long-term contracts with aircraft assets are becoming the main beneficiaries of the rapid growth of air cargo demand driven by cross-border e-commerce. Small and medium-sized freight forwarders that lack core transportation resources are gradually marginalized in market competition, and the resource and capital thresholds of air freight forwarders are also rapidly increasing.
